16/07/08 - Predicting winners in sporting contests is an exercise often fraught with pitfalls, and reaches nightmare proportions when it comes to the premier MX1 category at the Leatt-Brace South African Motocross Grand Prix at the Alkmaar circuit in Nelspruit this weekend. (July 18 to 20)

Only 16 points separate the top three riders in the MX1 championship and, on that score, motocross enthusiasts could not have wished for a better scenario at what is round 10 of the FIM world championship. With 25 points up for grabs in each of the two motos at Alkmaar, the scene is set for more championship fluctuations, close racing and high drama.

The main feature of the MX1 championship – and the major problem when it comes to choosing likely winners - has been the inconsistency of the top riders. Not one of the first 10 in the championship has scored points in every moto so far this season.

The inconsistency is further illustrated by the fact that between them the championship frontrunners, Italian David Philippaerts, on a Yamaha, and reigning world champion, Belgian Steve Ramon, on a Suzuki, have between them won only three races.

Philippaerts has not won a race since the fourth round in Bulgaria, and Ramon’s only win so far was at the second round in Spain. It drives home the point that consistency is often more important than race wins when it comes to bagging championships.

Philippaerts (302) has a 12 point lead over Ramon (290) with New Zealander Josh Coppins, on a Yamaha, only four points in arrears. Coppins has two wins to his credit this season and leads fourth placed Belgian Ken de Dycker, who has three wins, by 20 points.

Nowhere, however, is the inconsistency of the top runners better illustrated than by Sebastien Pourcell. The Frenchman, on a Kawasaki, has won five times this season but is only fifth in the championship.

Sixth and seventh placed Jonathan Barragan, of Spain, and German Max Nagle, have each won twice. Only de Dycker, Pourcell and Coppins have managed double wins this season with de Dycker scoring at the opening event of the year, the Frenchman winning on home soil and the New Zealander at the German GP.

It all adds up to a situation where picking a winner this weekend is a more than risky business. The old pin and blindfold method will suffice.

One would fancy, however, Philippaerts and Ramon as leading contenders for the overall win. Coppins, de Dycker, Pourcell and Barragan are obviously also capable of race wins with the likes of Nagle, on a KTM, and Briton Billy McKenzie (Honda) constant dangermen.

If the inconsistency of the frontrunners makes choosing likely winners difficult, there is a spin-off in that the situation also lends itself to the likelihood of some intriguing racing. Riders in the championship hunt will be aware of the high stakes and what a good performance this weekend could mean.

Ends
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RATTRAY THE POPULAR FAVOURITE AT LEATT-BRACE SA MX GP

South African star Tyla Rattray, the championship leader, will be the popular favourite in the MX1 category at the Leatt-Brace South African Motocross Grand Prix at the Alkmaar circuit in Nelspruit this weekend. (July 18 to 20)

Rattray, on a factory Red Bull KTM, has been a leading challenger in the MX1 category for a number of seasons. Injuries at inopportune times have scuppered his hopes of joining Greg Albertyn and Grant Langston on the list of South African world champions, and his band of local followers will be hoping that this is his year.

The premier MX1 category has been characterised this season by the inconsistency of the top championship contenders. By contrast the MX2 category has been dominated by three riders who between them have won 16 of the 18 motos run so far.

Rattray has six wins to his credit while second placed Italian, Antonio Cairoli (Yamaha), the reigning champion, has seven wins and third placed Briton Tommy Searle, on another Red Bull KTM, has three wins. The other wins have come from sixth placed Frenchman Nicolas Aubin (Yamaha) and Italian Davide Guarneri (Yamaha) who is way down in 15th place in the championship.

Only 23 points separate Rattray (321), Cairoli (357) and Searle (348) at the top of the championship table, with the Briton losing a little ground at the last round in Sweden. But the domination that Rattray, Cairoli and Searle have exercised over the category is further illustrated by the fact that fourth placed Shaun Simpson (KTM) is 87 points behind Searle.

It all suggests that this weekend will produce another straight fight between Rattray, Cairoli and Searle. The likes of Simpson, Portuguese rider Rui Goncalves (KTM), Aubin, two other Frenchmen in Xavier Boog (Suzuki) and Steve Frossard (Kawasaki) and Italians Manuel Monni (Yamaha) and Guarneri have had their moments this season.

They could upset some applecarts but it will be a major surprise if Rattray, Cairoli and Searle drop by the wayside. The sentimental money will be on Rattray and the home crowd will have high expectations for the Durban rider.

For Rattray, however, leading the world championship and racing on home soil is going to be a test of character. With Shannon Terreblanche (Beursfoon Suzuki) out for the rest of the season after breaking his femur at the German Grand Prix, the only other South African to regularly feature in the world championship this season is Wyatt Avis.

The Honda rider has had a patchy season and is in 20th place in the championship. He will be hoping that home ground support will help lift his game.

The top overseas riders will be joined by South African wild cards. For the local riders it is an opportunity to appear on a world stage and perhaps dent some overseas reputations.

The Africa Invitation event also provides a chance for riders affiliated to the Africa Motorsport Union (AMU) to get a taste of international motocross.